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One year ago, I began my first post for Now It’s History with a look at Labor Day as a presidential campaign milestone.
There were more questions than answers. For one thing, the authorship of Labor Day itself hadn’t been settled: Was it the idea of Peter J. McGuire, one of the early leaders of the American Federation of Labor or of the similarly named and equally mustachioed Matthew Maguire, who was the secretary of the Central Labor Union?
Much more significantly, was Labor Day really a crucial turning point in presidential races?
At that point, Kamala Harris had a 3.4 point lead over Donald Trump in the 538 polling average. It was “brat summer,” the season of “joy” that Democrats figured would carry them to victory in November.
But as I pointed out, leads on Labor Day were perishable.
One year in
It’s been gratifying to see so many people joining Now It’s History as subscribers. Thank you for your interest, enthusiasm and smart comments!
My plan for the second year of the site is to continue producing free weekly posts and to add some special features that will be available to paid subscribers. I hope you’ll keep reading, and if you’d like to support the cost of researching these posts, upgrade to a paid subscription.
In the year since the last Labor Day, Now It’s History has published more than 80 pieces.
I’ve had fun delving into documents, biographies, history books, podcasts and videos to research and write deep dives on topics like Trump’s tariffs, Andrew Jackson, Dred Scott, John Adams, Billy Joel, Superman, birthright citizenship, Napoleon, Paul Revere, Bill Clinton, J.D. Vance, the Supreme Court, Elon Musk, Thomas Jefferson, Ezra Klein, Marcus Aurelius, Javier Milei, Calvin Coolidge, Jeff Bezos, Harriet Tubman, Nathan Hale, Sophie Loeb and the Unabomber.
I’ve enjoyed doing podcasts with Frida Ghitis, Corey Brettschneider, Thomas Maier, Noel Rubinton, Julian Zelizer, Brooke Barbier, Lawrence Levy and Robert Alexander.
The Labor Day margins
As for the Labor Day connection to presidential politics, the numbers turned out to be revealing.
Hillary Clinton’s Labor Day edge of 3.7 points over Trump in 2016 got shaved down to slightly more than 2 points, allowing Trump to eke out an Electoral College victory. And Joe Biden’s 8-point Labor Day lead in 2020 fell by nearly half when the votes were counted in November.
I had no crystal ball, no way of knowing that Trump would erase Kamala Harris’ Labor Day edge and win in 2024 — by about 1.5 percentage points. But in retrospect, that first Now It’s History post was a vindication of the idea of this whole project — that looking back at crucial moments of history can provide insight into the turmoil we’re living through now.
When I decided to publish on Substack, practicing history without a license appealed to me as a governing principle.
As the founding editor and managing editor of CNN Opinion, I led a team that worked for 16 years with accomplished historians, including Douglas Brinkley, Alexis Coe, Joseph Ellis, Nicole Hemmer, Kellie Carter Jackson, Timothy Naftali, Manisha Sinha, Jeremi Suri, Jennifer Tucker and Julian Zelizer. Their work illuminated our coverage of the Obama, Trump and Biden presidencies.
I’m looking forward to following in their footsteps as this site goes into its second year.
Thanks again for reading. Please share Now It’s History with your friends. And please keep those comments coming.
Congrats on your birthday!
TRULY deserved ... wait til you hit the terrible two's ... or even 3 !!!!
;-)))