The risky betting on Harris vs. Trump
An election dominated by predictions of all kinds
It’s now legal to bet on the outcome of the November election.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission had blocked the Kalshi prediction market from letting investors wager on which party will control Congress after the November election. But last week a federal judge sided with Kalshi. If her ruling stands, you can expect Americans to have lots more election-related opportunities to gamble.
Outside the US, the Wall Street Journal noted, Britons have been able to bet on their elections. Non-Americans can bet on the Kamala Harris-Donald Trump race on Polymarket. As of Saturday, $830 million in betting on Polymarket was riding on the race, with Trump leading Harris, 50% to 48%. If you agree with the bettors there, you’ll also favor the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, the Dodgers to take the World Series, the Fed to cut interest rates this month by a quarter of a point, rather than a half, and “Inside Out 2” to win the crown for the year’s highest-grossing movie.
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