What sank the Democrats
Covid had an indelible impact on American politics
The Covid-19 public health emergency ended in the United States on May 11, 2023.
But Tuesday’s election showed that Covid is not finished with the US. Not only are there still people being hospitalized with the disease (though in much smaller numbers), but the pandemic had an indelible impact on America’s politics that is still playing out.
It arguably led to Joe Biden’s election as president in 2020. And it helped set the stage for Donald Trump’s improbable comeback in 2024.
Start of 2020
Think back to the beginning of the 2020 presidential election year: then President Trump’s popularity had risen to 49%, an improvement from the ratings in the mid-30s he experienced at the lowest points of his first year in office.
In January, 2020, inflation was tame — the consumer price index increased by only 2.5%. Unemployment was near a record low, at 3.6%.
American presidents tend to win second terms (Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton all did). Given the state of the economy at the beginning of 2020, Trump had to be considered a favorite to win his re-election bid.
But on January 20, 2020, the CDC reported the first lab-confirmed case of “the 2019 Novel Coronavirus” in the US.
By mid-March, life in America began to change dramatically. Workplaces and schools shut down, airlines started cancelling flights, people even began scrubbing their groceries in the mistaken belief that the primary way the disease spread was by contact. Unemployment shot up to 14%.
The disease would kill 385,676 Americans in 2020 (and an additional 826,000 people in the years since).
At home and anxious
Stuck at home and anxious, people focused on the White House’s daily Covid briefings; they saw a president and administration that lurched from one solution and policy to another.
“The catastrophe began with Trump’s initial refusal to take seriously the threat of a once-in-a-century pandemic,” the Washington Post reported. “But, as officials detailed, it has been compounded over time by a host of damaging presidential traits — his skepticism of science, impatience with health restrictions, prioritization of personal politics over public safety, undisciplined communications, chaotic management style, indulgence of conspiracies, proclivity toward magical thinking, allowance of turf wars and flagrant disregard for the well-being of those around him.”
Trump’s endorsement of unproven remedies provided a dramatic contrast to the stance taken by his Democratic Party rival.
As Reuters reported, “Biden took a different approach. He urged the public to listen to experts and take precautions, including masks and social distancing. He essentially canceled in-person events for months, reaching voters virtually instead. In the end, he was rewarded: Biden received more than 80 million votes – the most of any presidential candidate in U.S. history.”
Turnout in the 2020 election rose 7 percentage points over 2016, partly because Covid led to increased availability of mail-in ballots. “Nearly half of 2020 voters (46%) said they had voted by mail or absentee, and among that group, about four-in-ten said it was their first time casting a ballot this way,” according to Pew Research.
Trump refused to admit that he lost the election, challenged the results in court and tried to overturn Biden’s victory.
Inflation burden
After Biden took office, the Covid pandemic still raged, and it shaped the early policy initiatives of the administration. The $1.8 trillion American Rescue Plan, coming on top of $3.3 trillion in aid granted under Trump’s presidency — along with disruptions to the supply chain that brings goods to consumers — helped drive inflation to the highest levels in decades, reaching 9%.
Although the economy improved dramatically over the next several years, and inflation nearly returned to pre-Covid levels, prices for everything from eggs to rent remained substantially higher than in 2019.
Before long, Biden’s approval ratings were below 40%.
Had Trump handled Covid differently and secured a second term, we might have seen a Mike Pence-Gavin Newsom race in 2024, and an electorate ready for a change from the Trump era.
Instead, this year Trump made his second bid for a second term, hammering Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for the inflation surge and encouraging voters to wax nostalgic about the economy of 2019.
Harris bore the burden of trying to fend off voter resentment at inflation and immigration, after Biden dropped out of the race. But she couldn’t shake consumers’ anger at the rise in prices.
According to the AP, Trump voters were “more motivated by economic issues and immigration” than Harris voters, who said the future of democracy was their top issue. Other issues such as abortion and gender also played a role in Tuesday’s outcome, with Trump apparently finding success in his appeals to young male voters on a variety of cultural and economic topics.
Covid was a devastating public health crisis that changed the way people live around the world. It upended Trump’s presidency, and the reaction to Covid undermined the political prospects of first, Joe Biden, and then, of Kamala Harris.
Nicely done, Rich. As someone who covered Covid almost exclusively toward the end of my time at Bloomberg News, I can say without hesitation you've done a terrific job of wrapping up its effect on all of us. Thanks!