What sank the Democrats

Covid had an indelible impact on American politics

Photo by Tabrez Syed on Unsplash

The Covid-19 public health emergency ended in the United States on May 11, 2023.

But Tuesday’s election showed that Covid is not finished with the US. Not only are there still people being hospitalized with the disease (though in much smaller numbers), but the pandemic had an indelible impact on America’s politics that is still playing out.

It arguably led to Joe Biden’s election as president in 2020. And it helped set the stage for Donald Trump’s improbable comeback in 2024.

Start of 2020

Think back to the beginning of the 2020 presidential election year: then President Trump’s popularity had risen to 49%, an improvement from the ratings in the mid-30s he experienced at the lowest points of his first year in office.

In January, 2020, inflation was tame — the consumer price index increased by only 2.5%. Unemployment was near a record low, at 3.6%.

American presidents tend to win second terms (Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton all did). Given th…