Words Donald Trump will never say

The pivotal role of the concession

On November 3, 1920, the morning after James M. Cox lost the presidential election in a landslide, he sent a one-sentence telegram to the winner, Warren G. Harding.

It said, “In the spirit of America, I accept the decision of the majority, tender as the defeated candidate my congratulations, and pledge as a citizen my support to the executive authority in whatever emergency may arise.”

Cox was a successful journalist, newspaper publisher and governor of Ohio. But as the Democratic candidate for president closely associated with the unpopular incumbent Woodrow Wilson, Cox lost by 404 electoral votes to 127.

Messages like Cox’s telegram are not rare in American history. The American Presidency Project has compiled a handy record of all the concession telegrams and speeches since 1896 when William Jennings Bryan made what was the first of his statements conceding defeat in three presidential elections.

James M. Cox in 1920. (Library of Congress photo)

But even though Cox was just one of many candidates to concede in the 20^th and 21^st centuries, his telegram stands out for its pithy summation of the key elements of an ideal concession: first acknowledging defeat, offering congratulations to his rival and then promising to support the new president when needed. That opening phrase, “In the spirit of America” is a winning touch.   

So is Bryan’s 1896 line: “We have submitted the issue to the American people and their will is law.”

Except when it isn’t.

Breaking the rules

As everyone knows, in 2020, a century after the Cox telegram, President Donald Trump made history when he refused to concede that he had lost to Joe Biden. Many of Trump’s followers believed his false claim that he had been a victim of widespread election fraud, and some supporters invaded the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 to prevent the certification of Biden’s victory.

If Vice President Kamala Harris loses the election on November 5, history suggests she will own up to defeat. If Trump loses, it’s likely he will not.

The pattern was set four years ago. When media outlets reported that Biden had won on November 7, 2020, Trump issued a statement saying, in part, “We all know why Joe Biden is rushing to falsely pose as the winner, and why his media allies are trying so hard to help him: they don’t want the truth to be exposed. The simple fact is this election is far from over.”

Of course, Trump’s refusal to concede, and general willingness to break the rules of politics, is, for his base, part of his appeal. As Joe Klein wrote on Substack, “The thing with Trump, ever since he called John McCain a failure for having gotten shot down, you just don’t know what he’s going to say next. With other pols, you do. And that is the most important fact about Trump’s career as an American politician: he changed the paradigm and the ‘pros’ don’t seem to have noticed yet.”

Does a concession matter?

“It is a tribute to our forefathers that a successful election leads, time and again, to a peaceful transition of power to the successor,” wrote Maureen MacDonald of the National Archives in 2000. “This transfer of power is a fine-tuned machine that ensures that there is always someone to lead the country.”

George H.W. Bush, defeated for reelection in 1992, greets his successor, Bill Clinton, at Clinton’s inauguration.

Last week, Trump argued in a Bloomberg News interview that there was a peaceful transition in 2021 and renewed his complaints about that election. “I left the morning that I was supposed to leave. I went to Florida, and you had a very peaceful transfer,” said Trump, repeating that it was a “crooked election” and there was “love and peace” among the vast majority of his supporters at his rally in Washington on January 6.

“I went to Florida, and you had a very peaceful transfer”

—Donald Trump

Around the world

Anne Meng, an associate professor of politics at the University of Virginia, has studied concession speeches around the world from 1980 to 2020.

A summary of the research says: “We find that candidates in democratic countries are more likely to concede compared to candidates in autocratic countries. Surprisingly, losing incumbents are more likely to concede compared with non-incumbents who lose. The data also shows that precedence matters: if the loser in the previous election conceded, the current loser is more likely to concede. Finally, concessions are positively and significantly associated with fewer post-election protests (including those alleging electoral fraud), although it is difficult to convincingly establish a causal relationship.”

Barbara F. Walter, author of  “How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them,” wrote in the New Yorker in August that “when people think of elections, they usually focus on who might win and the policies that the winner is likely to enact once in office. But equally important in a democracy is how the loser reacts. If he or she does not accept the vote, then portions of a country can become ungovernable.” She cited Nigeria where more than 800 people died in violence following a candidate’s refusal to concede the 2011 election.

“We also have a candidate for President who is actively sowing mistrust in the upcoming election” she noted. “Trump has accused Democrats and others, hundreds of times, of attempting to ‘influence,’ ‘cheat,’ ‘rig,’ and ‘steal’ November’s election.”

The most recent American presidential concession speech took place November 9, 2016 following Trump’s victory. Hillary Clinton said, “Last night, I congratulated Donald Trump and offered to work with him on behalf of our country. I hope that he will be a successful president for all Americans.”

The question now is whether we will hear anything like that after November 5.